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LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Over the Hedge managed a modest 30 percent box office decline in its second weekend, though some analysts are concerned that the animal cartoon still could underperform and put pressure on the stock of its producer, DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc.
he film earned $84 million in its first 11 days, after a $35.3 million performance over the Memorial Day Holiday weekend, but has just one more weekend to itself before arch-rival Walt Disney Co. releases the Pixar-produced "Cars." "It now appears unlikely that 'Over the Hedge' will reach either our estimate of $195 million in domestic box office or original consensus expectations of $180 million," Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen wrote in a research note Wednesday after others had raised concern last week. The analyst said DreamWorks Animation likely will earn less than 50 cents per share this year, which would be a significant earnings miss relative to her 57 cents per share forecast. The analyst said she is reining in her box office prediction to $150 million-$160 million domestically for "Hedge." Her $420 million worldwide forecast also is at risk, she said, suggesting that $400 million is more realistic. The analyst expects that when "Cars" opens June 9, it will cut the legs out from under "Hedge," and she worries that the upcoming football World Cup will pressure the European box office. Lehman Brothers also initiated coverage of DreamWorks Animation with an "equal weight" recommendation and $29 target on shares. Analyst Eric Handler said "Hedge" needs to reach $400 million in worldwide box office receipts for it to join "Shrek" and "Madagascar" as franchise lynch pins. Handler also said "Shrek 3" and "Bee Movie," due next year, are solid, though he was less confident about "Flushed Away," which opens later this year. Investors seemed to shrug off the negative-to-lackluster analysis Wednesday, and bid shares of DreamWorks Animation up 19 cents to $25.95 on the New York Stock Exchange.
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